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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
15,545 members, 83 online
Newest member: bamafamily
August 23
Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
by  United States - Ohio Scarfinger | 11 Comments

I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.

You could argue for and against this move several ways.

Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.

Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?

I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.




August 22
Hello!
by  United States misty | 7 Comments

Just wanted to say Hello and thank you all for your great information, the first thing I do every morning is check this site for news. I am counting down to retirement and have a few years to make the most of my TSP. Thanks again and Happy Gains to everyone!




August 21
[ Poll ] Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
by  United States mmmmmbeer | 51 Comments

My answer is Yes, and I have been since June 2017. I have been essentially following "the leader" whichever is in place, but after the new tspcalc.com v2, I believe I'm going to stick with #7980 for the forseeable future.

Results so far:

June '17: -0.06%
July '17: 2.38%
Aug '17: 1.10% (thus far)

Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.

***edit*** fixed my years, thanks Trav!




August 21
Hello from Thailand
by  United States Nowisee | 11 Comments

In 1989 I started work in Arizona for the Dept of Justice at 28 years old.
In 2012 I retired at 50.
Moved to Seattle for a year and in 2013 I sold everything I owned and moved to Thailand to live for a while and travel around this part of the world.

My TSP continues to grow, I’m currently living off my FERS and income from my stock dividends.
In the past 5 years I haven’t made more than 3 IFT.
My “hobby” is retail investing and I don’t see a need to try and time the market with TSP.

I just joined the site, but look forward to reading some of the threads and hope to meet some like minded people.




August 20
Aitrus's Mix
by  United States mmmmmbeer | 10 Comments

Hey Aitrus I think we need to name Daily Strategy #9166 after you. :D If you have no objections of course. Check it out, it's the best one I could find that doesn't use the I fund.

Ladies and Gentleman... "Aitrus's Mix" (aka #9166)

Mean: 33.98%
CAGR: 32.26%
Time in fund (%): G:15 F:24 C:19 S:42 I:0
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 60.80
Standard Deviation: 22.65%

Attachment:
9166-1.jpg

Attachment:
9166-2.jpg

Attachment:
9166-3.jpg





August 18
Can't believe this site is free...
by  United States dseery | 6 Comments

Thanks so much for your awesome site!! You have given me confidence to navigate investing, even though I am quite naive about the market. Following advice of your generous members on the forums, I have achieved a return since joining last July that is likely better than any investment-saavy advisor I could hire. Go seasonal (and daily strategies)! Thanks Mjedlin66 and others! I have told my co-workers about TSP Center. I hope this site stays running for decades to come. If ever, due to finances, TSP center must face the choice of shutting down or charging an annual fee, please, please, choose the latter! You are totally worth it.

After seeing the banner at the top of the page requesting donations to TSP Center, for the 100th time, today finally I just made a modest donation to the site.

All the best, Diane




August 18
No More Kneejerks..
by  United States mmmmmbeer | 5 Comments

The more I watch the market the less scary it becomes. The less scary it becomes, the less emotion goes into how I'm trading.

For instance this last few weeks. The market plummets, and it comes back, up and down, and up and down.

Huh... welp... so what? Big deal if it goes down... it'll come back. Why react all hastily and flustered you know? Go all emo and pull myself off plan?

Maybe that's just it right? Having our plans give us the stability that others feel in the G fund. Oh.. look at the down market... big deal... I'm averaging X amount for the long haul. That bad day or two is a short term thing.

The average historical outcome gives me that feeling of security to that those huge emotional reactions out of the game.




 
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    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.4142 +0.01% +1.50%
   F Fund $18.0374 -0.14% +3.38%
   C Fund $34.2640 +1.00% +10.98%
   S Fund $43.4044 +1.03% +5.87%
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   L 2050 $17.9793 +0.62% +10.13%
   L 2040 $31.2917 +0.54% +9.14%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)