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TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
--- Member Statistics ---
13,153 members, 30 online
Newest member: RigLed
July 29
Running for the Door IFTs
by  United States Tomanyiron | 11 Comments

Long list of transfers early this morning with 80% to F fund. The last trading day in July has some effect, I’m sure. But could it also be because of these three things?
“ExxonMobil earnings badly miss expectations as profits sink 59%”
“US economy grows a weak 1.2 percent in Q2 as inventories fall”
'Slim pickings' with the two presidential candidates, which have high negative ratings.

Okay, I know what you are going to say “Its TimboSlice followers”. But did you know that TimboSlice’s system now is “Tomanyiron plus 5 days”? :lol:

July 28
TSP Match
by  United States - Michigan randyjb22 | 2 Comments

I'm looking at my TSP and E & L Statements from when I hired in, Sept 2006, PP 19. I don't see any agency matching contributions or agency automatic contributions until June of 2007, PP11. Does anybody recall when this changed?? I'm looking to get this squared away if I can, if I have $$$ owed to me. Thank you for any input! I'm trying to find anything I can on Google about it, most things I'm finding are current publications on the TSP website. Thanks again!

July 28
by  United States Mjeffe10 | 5 Comments

I have never thought about the fees that TSP charges, as I have always been under the impression that the TSP was one of the cheapest retirement vehicles available. I also know, according to their website, that in 2015 the TSP charged an expense ratio of $0.29* per $1,000 invested. I would like to know if there is somewhere that tells you how much you have been charged. I know this information is not listed on the quarterly statement. Although I am very well satisfied with the gains that I am making with the TSP, just having the figure that I have paid for the service would interesting to look at. I had an associate tell me that she doesn't use TSP and uses Fidelity, because she didn't know see a difference. I showed her the expense ratio difference, but couldn't provide her with an figure to match my account so that she would really realize the difference. Does anyone have an answer to this?

Thanks in advance.

July 27
Tuesday's gains where not calculated
by  United States - Florida RangerDave | 13 Comments

Last night nor today. FYI

July 26
Seasonal Strategy Using Multivariate Regression Adjusted ROR
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 7 Comments

Hey everyone,

I did a quick backtest on the S Fund (VXF) on a monthly basis (from October 2005 to present) by using an expected adjusted return that was adjusted by using a multivariate linear regression model using the following factors:

1. Market factor: Total Market - Risk Free Asset
2. Small Firm - Large Firm Factor
3: Value - Growth Factor
4. Business Cycle Stage 2 Factor - Energy Sector
5. Business Cycle Stage 3 Factor - Utilities, Consumer Discretionary Sectors
6. Business Cycle Stage 4 Factor - Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Financial, IT, Telecom Sectors
7. Business Cycle Stage 5 Factor - Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Financial, IT, Telecom, Industrial Sectors
8. Business Cycle Stage 6 Factor - Consumer Staples, Industrial, Materials Sectors

If you want to know the calculations, etc, let me know and I'll try to discuss them in greater detail.

What I found is that even when the adjusted expected returns were greater than zero, it was best to be out in the months of June, July, August, and September.

The result is a CAGR ( I used log returns for all calculations) of approximately 15 percent a year since October 2005. When the S Fund's adjusted expected return is less than zero, the model went into long term treasuries (VUSTX). The chart shows the difference between a dollar invested in VXF versus the strategy from October 2005 to present. Please keep in mind that the model doesn't take into account taxes, trading fees, slippage and any other factors that would have an impact on actual trading.

Simplified rule: Remain in fixed income during the months of June, July, August and September otherwise, if the adjusted expected return of the S Fund is greater than zero, remain or move into the S Fund.

July 26
Some Great Financial Websites
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 0 Comments

Hey everyone,

I've been using a few websites for the past few months to run some quick analyses and thought I'd share them (unless I already have).

July 22
Know your zero. Brought to you by math.
by  United States - Florida usps2013 | 3 Comments

I am confident this has been posted at some point, but it always bears reminding.

I see lots of folks talk about a drop in the market or taking a loss on a failed IFT. Most just want to get the loss back, i.e., get back to zero. In percentages, zero moves around a little bit. For example, the nominal loss from a 10% decline is not recovered by a subsequent 10% gain (100 - 10% = 90; and 90 + 10% = 99).

If you want to know "your" zero, here is the math:

X = (A / (1 - (A / 100)))
X = your zero %
A = the % decline

E.g., if I lose 5% in one move, I must recover 5.2% to get back all my losses.

X = (5 / ( 1 - (5 / 100)))
1 - .05 = .95
5 / .95 = 5.26315

X = 5.2...

Good luck and remain cognizant of your real goal.

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TSP Share Prices for Jul 29, 2016
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.0734 +0.01% +1.06%
   F Fund $18.0017 +0.27% +6.17%
   C Fund $29.6841 +0.16% +7.70%
   S Fund $38.1467 +0.33% +8.26%
   I Fund $24.4466 +1.86% +1.46%
   L 2050 $15.8492 +0.60% +5.48%
   L 2040 $27.9339 +0.54% +5.13%
   L 2030 $26.2275 +0.46% +4.64%
   L 2020 $24.0612 +0.33% +3.67%
   L Income $18.2126 +0.16% +2.47%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

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DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)