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TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
11,450 members, 19 online
Newest member: adamtsp
March 25
Kiplinger, good or bad?
by  United States Racerx919 | 9 Comments

Wondering if anyone had an opinion on this publication. I was reading it and wondering if I should subscribe or not. Did some research and they did have a few winners for the best 2015 stocks. Seems to easy!




March 24
Republican Budget wants to screw with G Fund
by  United States - Wyoming maxbobcat | 50 Comments

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fed ... op-budget/

"The House GOP budget would lower the rate of return for the most popular fund within the Thrift Savings Plan, a retirement program available only to federal employees and members of the uniformed services. The savings would result from offering a lower interest rate on the G Fund, which invests in short-term U.S. Treasury securities. The fund has offered relatively high interest rates on par with those for long-term bonds."




March 24
L2020 up 16% in one day WOW!!!!
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 5 Comments

Never saw this one coming.... L2020 up 16% in one day... Grab it before it disappears..




March 20
Must Watch Video
by  United States Relevant | 14 Comments

This is one of the most interesting, if not disturbing interviews I've seen lately. Recently retired member of the FOMC says "In the event of a market correction, the Fed should not intervene because the market is hyper overpriced,"

FYI - The video is more informative than the accompanying text.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102522626




March 20
Analyses on Other Funds
by  United States managingts | 5 Comments

I've been reading forums here and it seems that the talks tend to focus on the G,F,S,C, and some I funds. Has anyone done any analysis on L20.... funds? I mean any kind of analyses.

Thanks




March 19
New Fantasy TSP Playuh
by  United States GoTexas | 2 Comments

We did something like this in my MBA class and I actually ended up winning! I was shocked, as were many of my classmates. But now that I've shown such awesome financial flare (well, at least once), I can't wait to see if I've still got it.

Let the games begin! :lol:

GoTexas




March 19
Is a Market Correction Imminent?
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 43 Comments

There has been much discourse lately on whether the markets are bound for a correction/ crash and when such a correction/crash will occur. Additionally, there has been speculation on what would or will cause such an event.

There are a few economic indicators that can help determine the probability of the risk of a market crash. I use several indicators such as unemployment. Below, I have published a few charts that show what I use to determine the probability of a market crash. I don't really mind a few down months here or there. Rather, I am on the lookout for major market corrections.

I've also added a summary from FactSet at the bottom that gave a good overview last Friday on last week's performance. I think it really helps put things in perspective for the following week. If you all like the report summary, I'll see what I can do to add it to the site.

Feel free to add your analyses and opinions/thoughts to this discussion.

My opinion regarding a crash similar to 2000, 2008, and 2011 is that it'll eventually occur, but stating that it'll happen because interest rates will go up, or that there's too much leverage built into the system is really just a bunch of noise. I'm sure some pundits will call some sort of bubble or inefficiency in the market and predict a crash and if that happens I am sure they'll come out screaming loudly how right they were. Of course, it took them about 10 years to be right so how does that help an investor?

In any case my advice would be to invest wisely based on your risk tolerance. Being in the S Fund seems smart for the rest of March and April based off of seasonality patterns, the unemployment trend, 3 month momentum and excess return analysis and the Fed keeping rates at or near zero until their next meeting in June. My biggest concern is of course the massive appreciation of the USDOLLAR, but it seems with the Fed not moving rates yet that the strength of the USDOLLAR will decline some. I'll most likely wait in G from May until the Fed meeting to see what the Fed does and then revise my strategy moving forward.

Unemployment (UNRATE)
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TSP Share Prices for Mar 26, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.6807 +0.01% +0.44%
   F Fund $17.0089 -0.38% +1.23%
   C Fund $27.2620 -0.23% +0.36%
   S Fund $37.6764 -0.14% +3.80%
   I Fund $25.8985 -0.82% +6.94%
   L 2050 $15.3612 -0.35% +2.69%
   L 2040 $27.0095 -0.31% +2.39%
   L 2030 $25.3351 -0.27% +2.13%
   L 2020 $23.2996 -0.22% +1.75%
   L Income $17.6121 -0.09% +0.92%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)